Some of you may not care about this subject, but I wanted to share my thoughts.
Rumors are hot and heavy on the net the past couple of days about the iPhone. Some people are saying that the long overdue Flash support is just days away. Others claim that firmware 1.1.4 is about to be released. And the official word from Apple is that the software development kit (SDK) is going to be released this month - although I've even seen a rumor that it will be delayed a bit.
Now, just taking a look at all of these things as a group, I can tell you my opinion. I think that a new firmware (1.1.4?) will be required to run official SDK apps. It will also do a much better job of locking down the iPhone so that jailbreaking will be extremely difficult or - dare I say it - impossible.
So you'll be faced with a choice: Run official apps (purchased via iTunes, most likely) or stick with the hundreds if not thousands of free software programs available with the current version of the firmware. Geez, that's a hard one. The choice will be much more difficult when Apple throws in a little feature that everyone is dying for with that new firmware: Flash
support in Safari.
You'll need 1.1.4 to run Flash yet you'll be stuck with having to buy official apps because you won't be able to jailbreak it to run all the freebies.
Now, that all said, I think it will still be possible to unlock the phone to use it on different carriers. That may not seem possible without a jailbreak at this time, but things can - and often do - drastically change with new firmware updates.
It has been estimated that 18% to 33% of the iPhones sold to date have been unlocked to run on non-AT&T networks all over the world. To lock them permanently would cripple Apple and prevent them from reaching their stated 10 million sold goal by the end of the year. This could have devastating results to future iPhone support from the public and - probably more importantly - Apple's stock price.
That's where I see things going. I really hope that I'm wrong but it wouldn't surprise me if that is exactly how it all plays out.